Market conditions. Market analysis of the market enables to ensure successful business activity. It consists in collecting information, its systematization, registration of all information relating to the market, a particular product. The market conditions make it possible to identify real and potential consumers, their purchasing power, as well as the main trends and patterns of the market. The result of the analysis is the development of a business forecast.
The intensification of globalization and integration processes necessitates the synchronization of economic relations that are formed within the country, in accordance with the challenges of the external environment. In the conditions of the dynamic transformation of the national economy and the system of world economic relations in general, there is a change in the strategic importance of certain sectors of the economy to ensure the progressive development of the entire state. The exceptional importance of the market is determined by its functions, the main of which is to ensure the accumulation of resources and their redistribution between donor actors and recipient subjects. In addition, the domestic market is a peculiar measure of the stability of the economic situation in the country, as the decline in the market causes stagnation in production, and vice versa. It is also worth noting that any trading platform is a complex system, which from an organizational point of view can be represented as a set of different segments with their own peculiarities and laws of development. Therefore, there is an objective need to investigate the domestic market, as well as problems and prospects for its development, which will increase the efficiency of the functioning of both individual institutions and the market as a whole.
Actuality of theme
The economic activity of any manufacturer is doomed to failure if he does not have information about the prospects of market development, its capacity, the state of supply and demand, as well as the level of competition and so on. Some enterprises are already taking the first steps in this area, but relative novelty marketing analysis, the absence of scientific-methodical approaches focused on this sphere lead to occasional use of separate elements of analysis and do not give tangible results. At the same time, the lack of forecasting of the market leads in some cases to significant financial losses of the enterprise. This determines the need for market analysis.
Scientific research and publications
Theoretical and practical aspects of marketing analysis have been reflected in the scientific works of both foreign and domestic economists: I. Berezin, V. Voilenko, T. Derevyanenko, V. Karpov, A. Kovalev, D. Kostyukhin, V. Kucherenko, F. Levshina, S. Nikitina, E. Peshkova, F. Piskoppel, T. Ryzhova, S. Skibinsky and others. However, in their work little attention is paid to marketing research market, its indicators. And the above questions are relevant and need further research. The aim is to determine the essence of market analysis of the market and the description of the main stages of its implementation. It is worth noting that market analysis is one of the most complex types of marketing research. Its object is to identify the main trends of development, its fluctuations, as well as the assessment of potential and major proportions. Market analysis should be carried out in a certain sequence:
- study of the main features and features of the market;
- estimation of the dynamics of growth of structural elements of the conjuncture;
- development of a system of indicators of the state of affairs;
- accumulation and collection of business information;
- monitoring of factors having an impact on market conditions;
- forecasting market conditions and choice of forecasting methods.
In the first stage, markets are classified according to different indicators depending on the objectives of market research and distinguish features, since a separate type of market and determine further methods of its research and the range of indicators for analysis.
The second stage focuses on assessing the dynamics of the growth of structural elements of the situation and involves the application of certain methods of market analysis.
The structural elements of the conjuncture are assumed to be demand, supply and price, as follows from the definition of the market. In market marketing analysis, the following methods are used:
- economic system-wide analysis;
- economic and statistical;
- economics and mathematics.
Indicators of economic conditions
The emergence of the concept of "market conditions" in its modern sense is associated with the delineation of the study of economic conditions at different levels. Considering this issue at the macroeconomic level, the researchers used it as a general economic concept, which included the accounting of indicators in the world economy, with the concept of the economic cycle identified with the state of affairs.
The state of the world market is characterized by volumetric, effective, structural indicators; indicators of the intensity of international trade, as well as indicators of the efficiency of foreign economic operations. In turn, the microeconomic approach involves the separation of certain groups of indicators, united mainly by industry, which characterized a separate market.
Within the framework of this approach, the fluctuations of the situation of individual Togovoy sites were individual, and the system of cycles characterized the general economic situation.
An analysis of modern literary sources indicates the ambiguity of existing approaches to the interpretation of the essence of the concept of "market conditions". In the process of studying approaches to the definition of the essence of this concept, it was discovered that most scholars describe it as a combination of a certain number of factors (conditions, indicators, elements) that reflect the situation on the market. In this case, some authors also emphasize the existence of the relationship between certain factors, since the magnitude of the influence of a certain factor on the final situation may vary, depending on its interaction with others.
In determining the list of indicators that are part of the indicators of economic marketing, one group of scientists is limited by features that characterize the supply and demand ratio, while others include the indicators of competition and prices or determine the factors market conditions in terms of their spheres of origin (economic, political, social, etc.).
Methods of market analysis
The main methods of market analysis are comparisons, visual and graphical methods, and balance. The most widely used in the marketing analysis is a comparison, in which indicators of market conditions are compared with those that are forecasted. This method is most widespread, since it allows you to compare phenomena, to evaluate the changes occurring in them. The result of the comparison is the calculation of relative and absolute deviations (dynamics) of the indicators of the reporting and the base period. It is the method of comparisons that allows you to timely determine the degree of risk for further planning and development of enterprise development strategy.
This method is appropriate to use in market segmentation, market study by type of goods, their range, quality, etc. In conjuncture analysis independent value is given to visual and graphical methods, which are used for the visual display of the results of marketing research. In general, these methods are reduced to the construction of charts and tables, sometimes they use circular, sectoral, ribbon, curly diagrams instead. These funds in a bright and attractive form depict the connection between individual indicators and reveal their structure for visual comparison.
By the economic-mathematical methods of market analysis of the market include general mathematical methods for calculating economic indicators and mathematical modeling. Of great importance among the general mathematical methods are methods of risk assessment, commercial and financial calculations for market analysis. One of the important methods of marketing research is mathematical modeling. A mathematical model is a system of mathematical formulas, inequalities or equations that adequately describes the phenomena and processes inherent in one or another object.
It is also considered appropriate to use in market research of the market and economic and statistical methods, which help to determine the structural indicators for the processing and study of dynamic series. These include correlation-regression analysis of dynamics series, index method, analysis of the dynamics of the conjuncture, the method of averages, the analysis of time oscillations, as well as a group of heuristic methods. In the current rather difficult time, more and more professionals are turning to a correlation-regression variant, because it can be used to identify the impact of various factors, such as the market share of the firm, cost of production, business risks, etc.
It is worth noting also that analysis and forecasting are greatly complicated by the fact that indicators that reflect the state of the situation, are somewhat conditional and relative in determining the force of action of certain condition-forming factors. When using individual data, it should be borne in mind that some of them directly reflect the changing market conditions.
Other indicators can be used as an indirect indication of the existence of processes or trends that are compiled. This may relate to data on competitive struggle in the market under study, its trends, levels of monopolization, etc. This opinion is followed by many scientists, although they are different approaches to the formation of a set of indicators. Thus, according to F. Piskoppel, market conditions for forecasting and analysis should have indicators of production (industry, construction, agriculture, transport), commodity and money circulation, consumption. It is necessary to pay attention to the fact that in addition to general data, there should be separate, which will take into account the peculiarities of development of certain industries.
SV Skibinsky argues that the market situation can be characterized by such indicators as monetary income of the population, the structure of their costs, the volume of purchases of goods in both natural and cost indicators, the ratio of prices, structure and volume of inventories, etc.
FM Levshin defines indicators of study "as a tool for quantitative assessment of changes taking place in markets under the influence of various factors." Here the author highlights the level of market conditions, consisting of six groups of indicators: foreign trade; domestic commodity turnover; industrial production; dynamics of investments into fixed capital; order; the monetary sphere.
Another opinion on indicators is D. I. Kostiukhin. He highlights the indicators of development and the state of the branches of material production, commodity exchange of sphere and consumption, the monetary sphere. Thus, in particular, VR Kucherenko and VA Karpov distinguish the following groups of volumetric economic indicators, which are characterized by market conditions: market offer; market demand; market proportionality; the dynamics of market development; business activity; commercial risk. The proposed system includes the most commonly used data that can be used in conjunct analysis, and is needed to determine the moments of the fracture and the prospects for the development of the market environment, that is, to make a forecast for changes in the market conjuncture. The information base must meet certain requirements:
- have an organized database structure;
- update the database with the required periodicity;
- have a well-established analytical marketing system.
The structure of the analytical system should include a model bank and a statistical bank.
Research of the market conditions
At the present time, the study of the situation is impossible without the use of specialized ARM and computers, because this work is associated with large masses of information, which often have a rather complicated internal structure. In addition, the analysis of market conditions requires the implementation of labor-intensive calculations and graphic constructions. At present, there are available and there are very effective software development applications that allow you to quickly process and use business information for management decisions. The most commonly used and used is Microsoft Excel. Its main advantage is the complexity and combination of a large number of calculated functions, the ability of graphic constructions.
Use of a PC in a market research is possible under the following conditions:
- creation of information database;
- statistical processing of market information;
- graphic interpretation of trends in the dynamics of the conjuncture;
- construction of models of dynamic series of conjunctural indicators;
- construction of conjunctive wave and forecasting the development of trends.
The program Microsoft Excel is universal for conducting market research. In addition, software products such as Microsoft Access, Foxpro and others can be used to create business case processing databases.
Another stage at which an appraisal of the market situation is taking place is the monitoring of the factors affecting it. As structural elements have been identified in this analysis, monitoring of factors will determine their impact on these elements. Factors influencing the conjuncture can be divided into macro and micro factors.
Macro-factors include national income, net national income, production figures by industry groups, indicators of commodity turnover (internal and external), consumption indicators, etc. The microfactors include indicators reflecting the economic development of individual markets - indicators of production and consumption of products on market introduction of new production facilities, etc.
Forecasting of market conditions
The final stage of the analysis of market research is the choice of methods, development and forecasting. The purpose is to determine probabilistic assessments of the state of marketing in the future. Forecasting is considered as the resultant part of the research. It gives enterprises the opportunity to prepare themselves in advance for changes that may be in the market, and also take into account their positive impact and negative consequences, and if it is possible, intervene in its development and control it. With regard to methodological approaches, then to the problems of market forecasting, scientists approached differently. For example, FG Piskoppel believed that the basis for the forecast of the situation is an analysis. He formulated the requirements and described the indicators, briefly outlining the methodology.
According to D. I. Kostyukhin, large and medium-sized firms are interested in knowing the prospects for the development of the sector market, so it involves systematic long-term and short-term analysis. At the present stage in the study of the state of affairs it is noticeable that the branch of forecasting is an independent structural unit of conjuncture research. Thus, V.A. Karpov and V.R. Kucherenko in the name of their work carried out forecasting, therefore, the study of market conditions, emphasizes the importance for the forecast.
It is important to choose the method of forecasting. According to experts, in the economic literature there are more than 150 of them, although in fact 15-20 are actually used. The whole set of methods according to the degree of their formalization can be classified into two groups:
- Heuristic (subjective, intuitive, expert) - the essence of which is that the approaches used for the formation of the forecast are not set out in explicit form and inseparable from a person.
- Formalized (economical, mathematical, objective) - at which approaches to forecasting are clearly outlined and can be performed by other people, who will then necessarily come to the same prediction.
Heuristic methods include the method of commissions, the Delphi method, the interview method, the method of scripts, etc.
To formalized (economic-mathematical) include extrapolation and economic modeling. Methods of extrapolation are based on the hypothesis of preserving the existing formed links and their dissemination at predicted time, and the methods of economic modeling in mind the creation of models of interaction of various factors that determine the market situation. To economics and mathematics, which can be used in market analysis of the market, are deterministic models, as well as stochastic, which allow the existence of the influence of random actions on the data under investigation.
Market analysis of the market enables to ensure successful business activity. It consists in collecting information, its systematization, registration of all information relating to the market of a particular product. The market conditions make it possible to identify real and potential consumers, their purchasing power, as well as the main trends and patterns of the market. The result of the analysis is the development of a business forecast.