Getting smoothed textures by using Direct3D with HL for first time blew my mind, so did Caesar III accidentally setting my desktop resolution to 800x600 instead of 640x480. And yeah getting my first SSD earlier this year was quite a mindfuck.

Maybe advanced realtime raytracing & particle physics? The moment things really start to look photo realistic and we can't tell the differece anymore. The moment we realize this was a simulation all along!

SSD in 2013 was 500mbits speed, SSD in 2020 are 8000mbits speed, not really comparable

the next jump in hardware will be in 2-3 years thats when OLED monitors come in with 4k/8k displays, and 300/144hz, <0.5ms response time and hundred times better colors/contrast than any ips/tft/tn/va shit matrix.

In benchmarks yes, huge jump.
In daily use, 29.5s loading time vs 30, lmao

Something is seriously wrong with your PC if you load 29.5s,

I am loading in 4-5 seconds max. That's windows 10, no optimization.

the "older" my win10 gets, the longer it boots (being on SSD)

I don't think its a windows issue, although reinstall may help, it is likely your pc is ridden with some malware, viruses, and some kind of shitware that loads on boot, which u just need to disable.

5-6 seconds it should not take much longer than that really on m.2 ssd

SSD in 2013 was 500mbits speed, SSD in 2020 are 8000mbits speed, not really comparable

the next jump in hardware will be in 2-3 years thats when OLED monitors come in with 4k/8k displays, and 300/144hz, <0.5ms response time and hundred times better colors/contrast than any ips/tft/tn/va shit matrix.

I'm waiting for narrow AI becoming mainstream in almost all software. Perfectly humanlike enemies in games for example.

Another big step waiting to happen is close to zero loading times, by superfast memory and advanced loading techniques.

In terms of smartphones Im still waiting for them to become true startrek tricorders. Do stuff like analyze matter, measure contamination levels, 3D scanning rooms, advanced projectors built-in. Maybe environment scanner warning you of all sorts of dangers.

Curious. Why would AI lead to more human like bots?

Not saying it wouldn't, just interested in the reasoning

Neural network learning, at least as I imagine it, gets a basic ruleset, gets some limitations like a human player, then learns by watching demos of real players, but also learn by playing. By these steps it can develop much more intricate playstyle depending on situation, instead of doing the same scripted behaviors over and over.

I'd say you stop the learning at some point and check the result, if it fits the wanted behavior and skill level fine, if not, do more learning or start over.

Ah, you want them to program AI-driven bots that behave like humans.

I, for one, see no reason to expect actual AI to behave anything like a human in most respects. Unless programmed/trained/"bred" to do so.

DeepMind has been trying for years with StarCraft 2. It's possible to play against a bot instance of their if you accept the terms.

I think it was Google that shared q3 ctf using some kind of NN. They had given all the bots gauntlets to teach them the rules. Wasn't terribly impressive.

What happened to your response? Did you remove it,or was there some kind of web server issue

Sorry, I was very unsatisfied with what I wrote and deleted it some time later.
I have some OCD regarding phrasing in english, somehow I have problems with some topics, translating my thoughts and ideas from german to english

That's weird. I thought these languages are very similar. Personally, I didn't catch anything wrong with what you said. Then again, sometimes I have a really hard time understanding my own ramblings.

In any case, I think you have a point. My actual counter point is that we don't really know what makes us human. And, more importantly, why wouldn't they make bots that are more like cats, or octopuses (Firefox is refusing to acknowledge "octopi" lol).

Would a really smart dog behave like an equally* smart human? I don't think so. Dogs act like dogs not because they have less mental capacity. They are just really different. We can't even smell 1/100 of what they can do.

So, yeah. I don't think an AI is going to be anything like a human, unless programmed to appear as such.

* Not that it would be possible to measure such a thing.

The language is similar, but somehow when I think in english I think different, sometimes restricted by language.

You are right we humans anthropomorph everything, in reality an AI will most likely not have very human-like behavior. Only if the human way to do things is optimal, then in outside appearance, it would have the same behavior (but the inner workings might still be entirely different and very alien to us).

I liked the explanation here a lot (skip to the story below the [edit: second] blue box, if you want less reading)
https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-int...ion-2.html

An insect is basically a natural robot - no emotions, no similar behavior to us mammals. But what if it would somehow become superintelligent? Would it necessarily have human traits? Probably not.

So any narrow AI for a game developed with a neural net learning needs lots of constraints and then still iterations of selecting more human-like outcomes, a lot of fine tuning to appear human as you say.

Frankly, I think your use of "emotions" is rather unfair, even misguided. I've done some horrible shit to insects as a kid and there's no doubt in mind they have feelings.

I've seen similar dismissal of insects before and I do not agree with it.

Now, I am not saying an amoeba is super intelligent. Then again, I am not saying it isn't. Life has taught me that arrogance is not wrong. Sometimes I forget but I quickly reminded. Maybe it's nature. Or maybe I am being punished by my own brain. I don't know.

Well, ok, this seems to be an important topic to you, one could argue other species have different kinds of emotions, with different depth, because for example they have a hormonal system representing mood states. Fair enough.
I meant alienness. Spiders, as used in the thought example in the link, would seem alien to us in the way they function. Not the similar emotional depth which would instill some kind of trust by similarity.

here is the part

Let me draw a comparison. If you handed me a guinea pig and told me it definitely won’t bite, I’d probably be amused. It would be fun. If you then handed me a tarantula and told me that it definitely won’t bite, I’d yell and drop it and run out of the room and not trust you ever again. But what’s the difference? Neither one was dangerous in any way. I believe the answer is in the animals’ degree of similarity to me.

A guinea pig is a mammal and on some biological level, I feel a connection to it—but a spider is an insect,18 with an insect brain, and I feel almost no connection to it. The alien-ness of a tarantula is what gives me the willies. To test this and remove other factors, if there are two guinea pigs, one normal one and one with the mind of a tarantula, I would feel much less comfortable holding the latter guinea pig, even if I knew neither would hurt me.

Now imagine that you made a spider much, much smarter—so much so that it far surpassed human intelligence? Would it then become familiar to us and feel human emotions like empathy and humor and love? No, it wouldn’t, because there’s no reason becoming smarter would make it more human—it would be incredibly smart but also still fundamentally a spider in its core inner workings. I find this unbelievably creepy. I would not want to spend time with a superintelligent spider. Would you??

Oleds have been on the verge of popping off for what, 10 years now? I'll believe them when i'll see them.

Beside, 4k/8k resolution is pure retardation in practical use displays, both tv and computer ones.

Unless you're sitting 3 inches from the screen like Clawz, and frying your eyesight, you're never even gonna benefit from more than 1440p resolution on classic 24-27 inches monitors (and much bigger than that the further away you sit from the tv screen)

Literally it's impossible to discern the difference for people even with good eyesight.

No, this is not another "the human eye can't see more than 30 fps" thing, we know for sure jet pilots can discern individual frames up to 300 fps and possibly even a little more, so it's safe to say the ideal refresh rate would be around 300-400 hz and more than that likely is useless.

But with resolution, we also know, mathematically, unless you're a bird of prey, eveything above 1440 p is simply a marketing scam to benefit Nvidia.

4k is a retarded resolution. 8k is twice as retarded.

Literally it's only needed to keep the graphic cards market ramping up after the crypto bubble pop.

You must be blind. 4K is noticeably more detailed. Maybe it’s not as big of a leap from 640-489 to 1080p but still quantifiable as an improvement.

what do you watch in 4k? where you need more detail than 1080p? genuinely curious. I think 4k is retarded, but open to be proven wrong, lol.

What I think is retarded is while tech moves up in pixels lower pixel material looks more dogshit than ever.

4K looks sharper. It’s not a giant leap of difference but it is noticeable.

I honestly can’t believe you don’t notice. I’ll agree it’s retarded because streaming anything is compressed version of 4K which doesn’t look much better, also I realize most people don’t own ultra hd Blu-ray player. Get the equipment and buy an ultra hd movie like the matrix and watch it on a 4K television, it’s clear af. Worth the money? Not at all.

At lower bitrates it doesn't matter much if it's encoded as 1080p or 4k - 4k video will look similar to 1080p video with the same bitrate.

Considering that streaming services provide low (too low) bitrates for your screen resolution and don't let you select higher quality manually, having higher res screen allows you to get a premium video quality. Kinda unfair, but it is what it is.

Netflix down scales it’s content after being filmed at 8k. They have been doing that when house of cards came out

4K looks sharper. It’s not a giant leap of difference but it is noticeable.

On a normal size gaming display, subjectively around 10-30% sharper, for around 1/4-1/3rd of the framerate.

It will become the standard eventually. Right now it's just an utter waste of processing power.

it has already became a standard retard, this year videocards give about same frames on 4k and 1080p, you literally waste processing power, not having 4k, if you have 3080 or 3090 or big navy

and the density of pixels is 4 times higher,

subjectively it looks 200% better in any game you play, so if game was so-so on 1080p it might just look good on 4k

omfg you are crazy moron to compare 4k with youtube videos, they have a fucking bitrate limit, a 1080p on youtube looks like 360p or even 240p normal video

Calm down.

text, a lot of text. Even on 13 inch laptop makes a big difference - you can make text smaller and fit more on the screen. It's easier on eyes too.

4K is still a noticeable upgrade, but 8K steps into the same realm as with obnoxious audophiles

true fiber to the premises (not fiber to the node), and better direct routing to datacentres would be incredible. right now what's preventing this from being done is that governments don't have a good strategy for full fttp penetration. they can't decide whether they should make it open market by allowing foreign companies to enter the market with no restrictions, or to nationalize the infrastructure and complete the last mile upgrade with tax revenue. and so they are in a limbo where there's no competition and no strict government oversight, and the ISPs abuse this by bullshitting for decades saying "we need more time we need more tax incentives" again and again. there's also no strong consumer pressure for it since most people don't stand to benefit from very low latency, as even 3rd world internet is good enough for twitter, facebook, instagram, youtube etc. and businesses can just pay for a private business connection which is tailored to their needs.

either approach would work if they could commit to it, but they don't and so true fttp internet is pretty much gridlocked other than in a handful of countries.

let me guess American or German?

it's fun telling Germans that Telekom provides 1Gbps for 8 euros/mo in Romania compared to what they provide and charge in Germany.

for years they tried to weasel their way onto our internet market with weak shit like 100 or 200 Mbps, but they got smoked by our local ISPs (who offered 1Gbps since 2013) and had to pick up the slack. Telekom still have a bad reputation for it.

True Multi-GPU would be something. Since it hasn't happened until now I doubt it will though.

Starlink will be nice for those of us living in rural areas.

Right now most of the money, and most of the technological development, is in mobile devices.

A little farther ahead, but upcoming, are devices linking the human mind to a computer. Search for "Neuralink".

hopefully something that helps with pings

The speed of light is the final limitation for latency, while it varies for different optical mediums (it is slowed by dense mediums compared to vacuum) and can be optimised by more expensive optical cables, it is entirely up to big providers of internet infrastructure to do that, like the cables that connect continents through the sea.

In short you can't expect big leaps, just small optimizations. Quantum entanglement was a pipe dream by physics novices like me but you cannot use it to transfer lots of data.

You'd probably be happy if you just got cheaper delivery of McDonald's cheeseburgers.

2€ is cheap enough

There will be no major jump remotely as big as the ones mentioned already: 60 hz to 120 and then higher, spinning disks to SSD and a few other things.

Just marginal gains on things already there.

One thing is for certain: 3D won't be one of those.

pci-e Becoming the default controller for hard drives

That's 2011 technology... so old it's already disappearing from computers :/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.2

The absolutely biggest technical leap we could have in the far future would be symmetrical USB ports.

Something we could've and should have had 15 years ago, but then where's the fun in spinning around those things 5 times before finally cramming it into the hole?

The designers of those things should be publically hanged by their testicles.

And USB Type C is 2014 technology that's so convoluted [1] it's just better to stick to Type A and spin it around a few times :) I bet this is the reason for still poor adoption, not the astronomical cost of producing those things ;)

[1] There's a million different types of cables, so even though the plug is awesome, the chance of finding a working cable to connect two devices approaches zero as time moves on :)

neura link.
can beam music into your head.
why not visuals?
true VR

We're 20 years away from that at least

Quantum CPUs once they have found a decent solution to the cooling requirement. Its gonna be a Huge leap once it comes.

Then we get ready player one game with meta universes.

My guess is narrow AI as a middleware service for major AAA game titles. For example, a game like GTA, Skyrim, or Mass Effect where the NPCs have realistic behaviors and can have "conversations" to a certain extent. We may also see "multiplayer games" start to include very sophisticated AI players that are more enjoyable to play against than humans.

And why would bethesda EVER bother with all that? Why in the hell would they, ever!?

A 2007 game had better AI than anything out on the market today.

It's NOT the technology that's holding back AI in games. It's that there's literally no economical incentive in doing anything more complex than basic aimbotting and 3 prerecorded phrases for npc.

If anything we're going backwards- games are releasing in ever more unfinished states, always more glitchy and buggy and with less features than years before.

Skyrim 6 will be still on Gamebryo, confirmed by bethesda. And you think they gonna bother giving npcs complex interaction? Lmao! Quake 3 bots were 10 times more complex and variegated than the Quake title that came out 20 YEARS LATER.

Did we lose the technology?

Forget about ever seeing complex npcs in videogames- it's already much if 5 years from now you won't have to pay extra to actually have textures in your game.

The big studios have run out of ideas. Hence why there are nothing but remake/remasters and sequels. But they can still sell games based on better graphics, and new tech. Why the hell did so many developers start adding ray tracing to their games? Because it's new and sells games.

augmented reality would be cool for navigation, especially pedestrian and bicycle

and automatic recognition when u go into stores can get additional info, customer reviews on an item ... plant recognition, insect recognition, etc. ... this will be the next big thing ... this is possible with mobile to some extent already, but just like navigation is just complete shit to hold that mobile in hand and having to look down on it losing focus on the environment around you

Holograms. Proper 3D display.

I don't think there will be such giant leaps like switching from HDD to SSD soon, but there sure will be a lot of small steps.

I think the next jumps will be CPU performance (AMD's shit-ton of crazy cores, ARM-architecture, etc.), direct access loading, reduced latencies of all components, DDR5 RAM, USB4, new storage cells (affordable Intel's 3D-XPoint / Samsung's Z-SSD please :), the advancement of RTX, WiFi6 and 5G for phones.

A giant leap for humankind would be to stop wasting electricity on useless gimmicks like RGB lightning. I am also fine with trading some performance in order to get more efficient and silent parts.

But software sided improvements are important aswell, like slimmer operating systems, less bloatware on phones and so on.

problem with all these lights when you live in one bedroom appartment is they keep you awake at night, even the fucking powercable of the laptop has some wight rgb light attached to it, the wireless headphone has rgb etc etc., so always need to even unplug cables/switch off things completely to be able to sleep ...

Leap will be departure from x86 to something else. Arm already massively beats x86.

I'm not sure if I can call this a major jump from a performance standpoint but I think Apple's ARM silicon might finally lead to a shift away from x86 on the desktop. Probably not in all cases since there's so much legacy software but maybe this is the spark that gets Windows on ARM finally off the ground. Amazon already has Graviton for server workloads although I think it needs refinement.

It's clear from the benchmarks that these chips can be as faster or faster than their x86 equivalents now which was kind of a long standing question. Where this gets murky is Nvidia acquiring ARM. I'm pretty sure no one wants to be beholden to them. Apple has a perpetual license but that's not typical.

next SSD and next 4090 gtx ULTRA slap me hard stepbro 1200€ card

AND 4K 120fps 144HZ monitor for new PS 5 and XBOX SX startin June for 800-1000 e.g from ACER also very nice

>_<

- Human-Like AI

and

- Something revolutionary which supersedes mouse and keyboard / gamepad

Most revolutionary hardware invention - quantum internet with 0 ping all around the World! (hope this will be in 2050 as minimum) The revolution of online gaming, drone/robots controlling, etc.

We will be so old by then that it will feel like ping 300 nowadays anyway :D (irl we will be dead by then, if it happens at all - for grand majority internet latencies are low enough already)

Remember when we all agreed having 200 or less ping was a rather decent ping?

*does not apply to Swedes

:)

It's not the same, current pings are only an issue for gamers. Every other application works fine with 200 ping and more, 100 ping is considered "low"

Remote desktop doesn't. Covid may still save gamers!

AI supersampling/DLSS algorithms for upscaling - right now, this needs to be trained and implemented per game basis, but if the algorithm is generalized, this would be a game changer.. PC builds would be more future proof, handheld devices could render image at a lower internal resolution and upscale it for better framerates and less energy used

Starlink or a similar constellation of low earth orbit satellites used for more optimal internet routing (over medium to long distance hops). explained in more detail here.
for example, it has the potential of reducing ping from London to New York from ~76ms to ~46ms or, on a less optimized route, London to Tokyo from ~233ms to ~90ms (the submarine internet cables snake around the coasts of India and China, it's a notorious bad route).