everyone is going to start [+]ing whomever they bet for.

ESR system is designed to prevent that from having a bit impact. If that were the case, I could rate all Elij's posts and push him up - but it's cleverer than that. After a few ratings, the system catches on.

Basically your influence in the judgement drops off really fast for repeat votes. The second vote is half the influence of the first, and the third vote is one quarter the influence and so on. The time out of votes is about a few days so after that the votes have full influence again.

closing date?

I bet this will take forever like..
Wonder if anyone of them will even hit 99%

there's easy way to reach 99% for one of top three condenders:
you have to trick both your opponent to click [+] under your post
;p

dont think It'll take that long, MrE is on 91% as we speak.

Um, I don't think it's possible to reach 99% - The distance to increase every percentage is more the closer you get to 100%. I can't remember the exact formula but I doubt anyone can ever reach 99% unless *everyone* [+]'d them!

You might want to cancel this bet, given that information :). Just set all of the choices to draw and cash it.

i think there's a litlle problem with high popularity

i imagine that mre or carmac often stop themselves clicking [+] just because of how big their influence is

I do think twice about clicking a + when it will shift someone from 0 to +20 percent, but only in a self-indulgent power-crazed fashion.

Something tells me that post wasn't really worth 52%. But the more who bet on you, the more likely you are to get a high [+], since they will want to make money by getting you to 95%

cheaters

Those sort of people are just going to piss off MrE and make him vote for CarMac :)

if mre doesn't counter with good column then carmac is going to win with his ngi lan coverage :)

tsk, ye of little faith.

There's many a slip twixt cup and lip.

great counter,
could have been another way if carmac cared

you gave me 19% for 1 vote on one of my posts !!

I've seen MrE hit 96%

Would 97% be more realistic ?

sigh

i probably should have read the comments before betting

why odds don't add up to 100% ? (54+27+13+3.4=97.4)

it's a rounding error

initial values were 45 + 35 + 15 + 5

current values are 57.2262 + 26.3803 + 13.1148 + 3.27869 = 99.99999

how come only top 3 options get rounded?

You only get a decimal place for values under 10, just for neatness...

How does one get to 99%?.. Does 99% of all ESR readers have to click the + by them?.... I guess I have never asked nor taken the time to figure it out.. Please inform me. Thanks.

nope... no-one really knows how the [+] rating system works.

Just done a test. My 10% vote influence pushed MrE from 87 to 88% The rating system must make it exponentially more difficult to gain ratings as it made prdchaos go from 0% to 5. Basically, I think 2 articles (or 3 for if22) with ratings over 50% should swing it.

yay im popular

n1 chilled :)

/me looks for formula...

$judge_post_id = intval($judge_post_id);
if ($judgeform AND $judge_post_id>0 AND $logged_in)
{
$reloadpage = $return_page;
$sql = "SELECT post_id FROM judgement WHERE post_id = $judge_post_id AND user_id = $userid";
$result = mysql_query($sql,$db);
if ($myrow = mysql_fetch_array($result))
{
$val_error .= "<BR />Error: You have already judged this post";
} else
{
$sql = "SELECT user_id FROM post WHERE post_id = $judge_post_id";
$result = mysql_query($sql,$db);
$myrow = mysql_fetch_array($result);
$user_id = $myrow[user_id];

if ($user_id==$userid)
{
$val_error .= "<BR />Error: You may not judge your own posts!";
} else
{
$sql = "SELECT user_popularity FROM user WHERE user_id = $userid";
$result = mysql_query($sql,$db);
$myrow = mysql_fetch_array($result);
$user_popularity = ($myrow[user_popularity]+100/9)/(10/9);

$sql = "SELECT COUNT(post_id) as judgements FROM judgement
WHERE user_id = $userid AND post_user_id = $user_id
AND DATE_ADD(SYSDATE(), INTERVAL -72 HOUR)<judgement_date";
$result = mysql_query($sql,$db);
$myrow = mysql_fetch_array($result);

$user_influence = intval($user_popularity/pow(2,intval($myrow[judgements])));

$sql = "INSERT INTO judgement (post_id, user_id, post_user_id, user_popularity, judgement_date)
VALUES ($judge_post_id, $userid, $user_id, $user_influence, SYSDATE())";
$result = mysql_query($sql,$db);

$sql = "UPDATE user SET user_popularity = (user_popularity + ($user_influence*(100-user_popularity))/1000) WHERE user_id = $user_id";
$result = mysql_query($sql,$db);

$sql = "UPDATE post SET post_judgement = (post_judgement + ($user_influence*(100-post_judgement))/1000) WHERE post_id = $judge_post_id";
$result = mysql_query($sql,$db);

$newjudgement = 0;

$sql = "SELECT * FROM judgement WHERE post_id = $judge_post_id";
$result = mysql_query($sql,$db);
while ($myrow = mysql_fetch_array($result))
$newjudgement = $newjudgement + ($myrow[user_popularity]*(100-$newjudgement))/500;
$sql = "UPDATE post SET post_judgement = $newjudgement WHERE post_id = $judge_post_id";
$result = mysql_query($sql,$db);
}
}
}

So what does it all mean? :)

First it works out an influence value between 10 and 100. For a first time voter, with 0% popularity the influence is 10, and for someone with 100% popularity the influence is 100. Repeat voting on the same person within 72 hours exponentially drops the influence. A second vote within 3 days is only half as effective as the first, and so on.

Now the increase in popularity seems to be like this: The gap to 100% is closed by one tenth of the influence percentage. So if there was 50% influence, then you'd move 5% closer to 100. If you had 100% influence, then you'd move 10% closer to the magic 100. Remember those are fractional moves, not absolute amounts.

> So what does it all mean? :)

It means you have a MySQL backend.

It also means that you prefer AND over &&... ;)

- smack

well look at the top bar at ESReality, i'm over 95%

beting is over 27:1 for me !

LOL :D

Creative :P

YaY ! First bets I can manipulat ^^ Hey MrE seems you gonna make me some $$$ :))))))

wtf ? I just clocked on MrE's [+] and it threw me to a blank page :P I smell consipracy ;)

What if we are all creative and make me 95 percent popular and all but our ES money on "other" ?
we would make tons of money

Go for it...

But the odds would go down real fast :P

MrE is out ahead with 92%
Carmac is still at #2 87%
if22 is stuck at #3 70%

I've noticed some attempted vote rigging in favour of MrE although its been minor so far. Bear in mind that MrE is unpredictable and could be offended by this, doing something drastic like [+]'ing CarMac a few times. If if22 were to do the same (with Sujoy or buq.), I think we'd have a winner in CarMac - and @ 13-2 odds too.

In short, behave :P

My vote is for sale in exchange for a cookie (crunchy variant preferred).

[+] !

I hope Sujoy would be the first :-)

Ohh yeah and I hope Cytostatica would too ;-)

jugde all my posts
then you'll earn money :)

Update

MrE is out ahead with 92%
Carmac is still at #2 91%
if22 is stuck at #3 70%

in a swift move Morba moves up from 12% to 30% !!

a few top class first news articles on ut2k3 could take me up into the running...

/me dreams on

For those of you who wanna have more fun with the poll I offer you a lottery. Each of these pluses leads to a post judgement - one to MrE's post, one to my post and one to if22's post. Have fun and please be lucky enough to click my plus! Do not click all three :>

[+]

[+]

[+]

i've got a better idea :p

IMHO this fixture should be closed now,.

You don't realise that the leap from 92% to 95% is about as big as the leap from 0 to 60% :)

Tho MrE has 3 posts in the drafts section which could easily get him there...

Perhaps it's big jump, but when will you close it then? When someone is at 93%? Sounds a bit too close :)

Now :)

No more bets will be taken on MrE...

What happened to MrE? His columns were good.